From Bonn to Baku: A Rocky Road to COP29

Paul Rahmat SVD

The regular UN Climate Change Conference took place in Bonn, Germany, from June 3 to 13, 2024, under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Around 6,000 people participated in the annual conference, mostly from national delegations (parties) and civil society groups as observers. Two delegates from VIVAT International, Roy Thomas and Paul Rahmat, were present at the conference.

The Bonn conference is known as an “inter-sessional COP”. Parties discuss the decisions made at previous COPs and propose recommendations to be negotiated and decided at the upcoming COP. Unlike the COP, the talks and discussions in the Bonn Conference are more technical rather than political negotiations. In Bonn, parties typically negotiate mechanisms to implement the agreements reached at the previous COP. They work on the language of the negotiated text and draft conclusions to make formal recommendations to the next COP.

Making halfway to COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Bonn Conference discussed several pressing climate issues. These included climate finance, loss and damage, national climate plans, just transition from fossil fuels, climate adaptation, and global stocktake. In addition, the impacts of climate change on children and mountains were another new topic for discussion during the conference.

Climate Finance

COP29 in Baku is dedicated to discussing the financing of climate action. Parties will negotiate and agree on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance to support developing and least-developed countries in implementing their national climate plans and submitting ambitious National Determined Contributions (NDCs) in early 2025. In this context, climate finance became a burning issue for talks and discussion at the Bonn meeting.

Discussions and negotiations on climate finance focused on three areas: how much is needed for the climate funds? Who will pay (contributors) and receive the money (beneficiaries)? And finally, will the money be given as grants or loans?

At COP15 (Copenhagen, 2009), developed countries agreed to provide US$100 billion in climate finance by 2020. This amount needs to be increased to meet the needs of developing and least developed nations for financing climate mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. Therefore, under the Paris Agreement, Parties agreed to set a new quantified goal for climate finance, with US$100 billion as the baseline amount.  How much climate finance is needed annually? Some research-based reports suggest up to about $5.8-$5.9 cumulatively by 2030. Other estimates range from $7.8 trillion to $13.6 trillion for the same period. Discussions on the number of climate funds available annually range from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. In conjunction with this, the UNFCCC secretary, Simon Stiel, called for “a quantum leap” in climate finance.

The other issue discussed in Bonn is what countries will pay the money. According to the Paris Agreement, developed countries contribute to these funds. Countries from the Global South urge that developed countries provide the money, as they are historically the biggest contributors to gas emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, the United States and Norway, representing the developed countries, argued that the donors should be broadened to include countries from emerging economies with high emissions and economic capacity, such as India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, and petrostates.

Who will get the money? The United States suggested that the money should go to those most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.  Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States must be prioritized to receive the funds. Developing countries, however, said they should all be eligible for funding.

Whether Climate funds will be given as grants or loans is another topic of discussion. Developed countries contribute $100 billion annually, of which 69 percent is in the form of loans. Developing countries say that loans should not be counted as developed countries contributing because it will increase the debt burden of the most vulnerable countries. The financing for climate change will become a new debt burden for developing countries.

Rocky Road to Baku

Countries (parties) will continue negotiating to agree on a new climate finance deal at COP29 in Azerbaijan in November. It is expected to go beyond the original goal with $100 billion as the baseline amount and based on the real needs of developing countries impacted by climate change.

However, climate finance talks at the Bonn Climate Conference ended in a deadlock as countries failed to make any concrete progress on the issue. In the closing session of the conference, many countries expressed their disappointment and frustration at the lack of any outcome on financing for moving away from fossil fuels to curb greenhouse gas pollution this decade. Samoa’s lead negotiator, Anne Rasmussen, spoke on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States and said, “We have failed to show the world that we are responding with the purpose and urgency required to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.” The UNFCCC secretary Simon Stiel warns of a “steep mountain to climb” for COP29.

There have been big gaps and disagreements over how much climate funds should be, who should be prioritized for finance, what form this money takes, and what countries will pay.  To bridge the gap, Azerbaijan, hosting the upcoming COP29, will convene a high-level ministerial meeting before the meeting in Baku. For effective negotiations, Alden Meyer, a climate analyst and think tank from Civil Society Groups, suggested having that conversation among countries’ finance ministers as soon as possible.

Paul Rahmat SVD, VIVAT Team, New York Office